Humanity’s Red Line Has Just Been Crossed

No matter when one dates the beginning of the Ukraine conflict and no matter what your opinions you have of Putin and Biden, the Ukraine war has now crossed a red line for humanity.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine and arguably before, both Russia and NATO have been behaving in extremely irresponsible ways that endanger the lives of everyone on the planet.   Science for Peace unambiguously denounced the resort to military force by Russia as unacceptable from the outset but it must also be understood that the refusal by the Biden Administration to engage with Russia when Russian troops were amassed on the border with Ukraine and in the context of a major Ukrainian offensive in the Donbas, was a form of diplomatic malpractice if not dereliction of duty.  Their interventions since, to prevent a negotiated end to the conflict is similarly criminal.  Nevertheless, the repeated threats by the Russian government to use nuclear weapons is completely unacceptable.  The most recent serious escalation in the conflict has been from the NATO side and all indications point to an impending disaster that will bring it into direct conflict with Russia.

November 19 was a momentous day.   For the first time, the United States authorized Ukrainian forces to fire US supplied ATACMS missiles deep into Russia.  The targets were determined by US satellites, and then US technicians transformed the data into the detailed firing codes needed for the missiles to hit their targets.  US authorization was also needed (and given) for subsequent attacks on Russia by French SCALP and British Storm Shadow missiles.  

Pressure to permit these direct attacks had been building for months.  In September, Starmer and Zelensky went to Washington, to plea for permission, that was denied.  Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin explained that the strikes would escalate the conflict without bringing significant military benefits.   This time, pretexting the (still unconfirmed) presence of North Korean troops in Russia, the pentagon was bypassed and permission was granted. 

Direct NATO attacks deep in Russia cross one of Russia’s few red lines and that “changes the very essence of the conflict” (Putin).   NATO’s proxy war is now a direct war against the world’s most powerful nuclear armed state.  

November 19th was momentous for another reason: president Putin announced a change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine.  For the first time it now includes the option of a nuclear response to a non-nuclear attack when the attacking country is backed by a nuclear one.   From now on, Russia’s promised retaliation could theoretically be nuclear.   Putin furthermore declared that, since Russia now sees itself as in direct conflict with NATO, the “missile defense” installation in Poland (which can in a matter of minutes be converted to firing nuclear capable Tomahawk missiles) is a legitimate target.

Then, on November 21, just when the media were mocking Russian threats as bluffs, the retaliation came. 

The Oreshnik hypersonic missile that struck Ukraine’s Yuzmash missile factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk was unlike anything seen before.  According to detailed analysis by Theodore Postol, a leading MIT missile expert, the missile is based on revolutionary new technology that effectively makes existing missiles obsolete.  According to Postol, claiming - as the Ukrainian government has done - that Oreshnik is simply an upgrade of a previous missile system, is like claiming that “a modern EV is ‘just’ an upgrade from a steam-powered car”.   Travelling between Mach 10 and Mach 12 (3 – 3.5 kilometers per second), it separates into 6 independent re-entry vehicles, but unlike the old Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles technology, each of these is separately maneuverable and in turn releases submunitions.  The impact velocity is so large and the temperature so high (almost that of the sun), that Oreshnik’s warheads don’t even need to be explosive: it is believed that the munitions used in Dnipropetrovsk were simply highly penetrating metal rods whose energy was much greater than dynamite.  Oreshnik is so fast that there are no systems on Earth remotely capable of stopping it. With a range of over 5000km, Oreshnik can reach anywhere in Europe and if launched from East Asia, it can reach much of the United States. 

Oreshnik is also nuclear capable.  To avoid any misunderstanding, the Russians gave the United States 36 hours to remotely observe the prelaunch missile preparation so that they could clearly see that the payload was non-nuclear.  Then, 30 minutes beforehand, they tipped them off that a launch was imminent.

Although Russia’s message is clear, with US permission, France and the United Kingdom are pressing for more attacks on Russia and next time, Russia’ response may not be confined to the Ukraine. 

In military parlance, Russia has now achieved “escalation dominance” - at least with conventional weapons.  What will NATO do?  Over the last two years, rather than negotiate, it has continuously and incrementally escalated the conflict introducing new weapons one after another (tanks, then missiles, then fighter jets) each time hypocritically crossing their own “red lines”.  Now, with Oreshnik, NATO has run out of non-nuclear escalation options.   They are now faced with the incredibly dangerous choice of backing down and losing face, or going all-in for nuclear Armageddon.   And this option indeed appears to be on the table.  On November 20th, Rear Admiral Buchanan, Director of Plans and Policy at the J5 (Strategy, Plans and Policy) for US Strategic command (responsible for deterring nuclear war), stated that “…if we have to have a [nuclear] exchange, then we want to do it in terms that are most acceptable to the United States…. That puts us in a position to continue to lead the world…”.

According to Dimitri Polyanski, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN, “We are in a situation today that is far more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis, we have never been this close to nuclear war in the history of the world” (quoted from Consortium News, Nov. 25).   We do indeed seem to be in a missile crisis more dangerous than the first.  Then, Kennedy and Khruschev were on speaking terms and were able to bypass the hawks and negotiate a de-escalation.  Today we are dealing with a US president too demented to run for president but yet intent on escalation at any cost.  He is supported in this insanity by a subservient and ignorant NATO political class.  This includes Trudeau cheerleading us to the precipice.   Could the insistence on “Trump proofing” support for Ukraine articulated by the Biden administration with its partners in Europe and Ottawa take the form of coaxing Russia into attacking the missile defense base in Poland to trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty?

Since Trump has promised to end the war when he takes office in January, events may now move quickly.  We must now do all in our power to inform and mobilize our fellow humans while there is still time.

Shaun Lovejoy, Arnd Jurgensen, Adnan Zuberi (Members of Science for Peace)