Canada should lead rescue of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty

It is an understatement to say that we are living through turbulent times. The Canadian Prime Minister has declared that our previous international order has sustained a “rupture” and that a new collective effort must be made by middle powers to ensure their own security and well being.

Few elements of the international legal order have suffered more in recent years from assault or sheer neglect than the multilateral non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament regime. The 1970 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) is the embodiment of this regime with its 191 state parties. The NPT set out a tripartite bargain whereby the five nuclear weapon states under the treaty (Russia, China, United States, UK and France) commit to nuclear disarmament; the other non-nuclear weapon states forswear ever acquiring nuclear weapons and all support the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

The NPT has served the international community well since its inception as reflected in the unanimous support for the treaty’s indefinite extension in 1995. But in recent years failures in implementation have eroded the foundation of trust amongst the powers. The nuclear weapon states far from reducing their nuclear weapon arsenals have built them up via major modernization programs. Russia and the US have just allowed their last nuclear constraint agreement to lapse without a replacement. Four nuclear-armed states (India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) have remained outside the treaty. The risks of nuclear proliferation have been stoked by irresponsible actions on the part of nuclear-armed powers spurring some non nuclear weapon states to openly reconsider their position of nuclear abstinence.

Against this background of rising geopolitical tensions, the cooperation amongst NPT parties has been undermined. The last two NPT review conferences (in 2015 and 2022) failed to produce an outcome document. The same fate is hovering over the next such conference to be held this spring at the UN in New York. This core treaty of nuclear governance is facing a “three strikes and you’re out” result with possibly fatal effects for its authority. A rescue plan is sorely needed to salvage the treaty and prevent this dire outcome.

Fortunately, some middle powers amongst the NPT states have been aware of the mounting threat to the viability of the treaty and have engaged in efforts to strengthen it. These 22 non nuclear weapon states comprise two groupings: the 14 member Stockholm Initiative on Nuclear Disarmament and the 12-member Non-proliferation and Disarmament Initiative.* Canada, Japan, Germany and the Netherlands are members of both of these cross-regional groupings. Concerted action by the states belonging to the Stockholm Initiative and the NPDI could have a great impact on the upcoming review conference, but will need a leader to coordinate their efforts.

We call upon the Government of Canada to provide that leadership by convening a meeting in Canada of the 22 states associated with the Stockholm Initiative and the NPDI as soon as possible to consult and coordinate their actions for the review conference and beyond. If the dark clouds of nuclear weapon proliferation are to be swept aside, middle powers, as Prime Minister Carney has stated, will have to step forward and provide the leadership and sanity that the nuclear hegemons have failed to demonstrate.

Stockholm Initiative members: Argentina, Canada, Ethiopia, Finland, Germany, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, Norway, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland NPDI members: Australia, Canada, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Nigeria, the Philippines, Poland, Turkiye and UAE.

ENDORSED BY THE FOLLOWING RECIPIENTS OF THE ORDER OF CANADA

Carolyn Acker, C.M. Murray Angus, C.M. Hon. Dr. Lloyd Axworthy, P.C., C.C. Gerry Barr, C.M. Allan Gordon Bell, C.M. Paul Born, C.M. Dr. Neena L. Chappell, C.M. Stephen Chatman, C.M. Dr. Jan Christilaw, C.M. John J. Claque, O.C. Roger Clark, C.M. Dr. Edward H. Cole, C.M. Dr. Raymond J. Cole, C.M. Libby Davies, C.M. Michel W. Drapeau, C.M. Dr. Jayanne English, C.M. W. Paterson Ferns, C.M. Dr. Cheryl Forchuk, O.C. Irene Fraser, C.M. Eric Friesen, C.M. Dr. James C. Hathaway, C.M. Dr. R. Brian Haynes, O.C. Dr. Michael D. Hill, O.C. John Hobday, C.M. Daniel Ish, O.C. Dr. Peter G. Martin, O.C. Elizabeth May, O.C., M.P. Dr. Lynn McIntyre, C.M. Hon. Marilou McPhedran, C.M., Senator John Mighton, O.C. T. Jock Murray, O.C. Hon. Kim Pate, C.M., Senator David Pelly, C.M. Hon. Allan Rock, P.C., C.M. Ann Saddlemyer, O.C. Dr. David Scheifele, O.C. Dr. Barry Smit, C.M. Gérard Snow, C.M. Sally Thorne, C.M. Jane Urquhart, O.C. Dr. David Waltner-Toews, O.C. Dr. Gary Warner, C.M. Dr. Frederic Wien, C.M. Dr. David P. Wilkinson, C.M. Dr. Della Wilkinson, C.M. ENDORSED BY THE FOLLOWING MEMBERS OF THE STEERING COMMITTEE OF CANADIAN LEADERSHIP FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT APPROUVÉ PAR LES MEMBRES SUIVANTS DU COMITÉ DIRECTEUR DE LEADERSHIP CANADIEN POUR LE DÉSARMAMENT NUCLÉAIRE Bev Tollefson Delong Cesar Jaramillo Firdaus Kharas, O.C. Paul Meyer, Ambassador (ret) Alex Neve, O.C. Ernie Regehr, O.C. Hon. Douglas Roche, O.C. Dr. Jennifer Allen Simons, C.M.